The United States has announced new tariff measures targeting imports from Vietnam. While Donald Trump’s rhetoric surrounding the announcement was dramatic – “Vietnam: great negotiators, great people, they like me. I like them. The problem is they charge us 90%. We’re going to charge them 46% tariff.” – the implications deserve a clear, measured analysis.
Below is our summary of what’s happening, why it matters, and how we see it playing out.
- Based on tariffs of 46% we estimate the impact to Vietnam’s GDP at between 1.4-2.0%
- Today was an opening salvo, but the key date is 9 April when the tariffs go into effect. We expect Vietnam to be proactive with both economic transactions and non-trade negotiations to target a tariff level on par with regional peers.
- Our equity market outlook is for volatility in the short term, with the government’s decisive reform efforts favouring domestic consumption prevailing over the medium-to-long term.
Download our full Flash Note PDF below:
