Vietnam is gearing-up to be an export powerhouse and the process
is just starting.
After spending most of the 20th century either under
colonial control or armed conflict, Vietnam enters the new century
as one of the most dynamic economies in Asia. With trade, capital
flows, and growth shifting from the western to eastern hemisphere,
the country's favorable demographics, geography, and growth
fundamentals create one of the most compelling investment stories
in recent memory.
Vietnam is the world's 13th most populous country
with 86 million people mostly between the ages of 25-35. The
country's post-war baby boom demographic is highly ambitious,
industrious, and captivated with modernisation. Isolated from
global markets until the mid-90's, normalisation of diplomatic
relations has sparked a rapid transition. Since Dragon Capital
established in 1994, the nation has visibly evolved
from bikes to motorbikes to cars. Vietnam is centuries of material
development compressed into decades.
Furthermore, the government is tempering "go for broke" growth
with equality resulting in political and social stability. Starting
with universal land tenure program that incentivised the rural
population, peasants became small farmers and revolutionised
agriculture productivity. From famines in the 80's Vietnam
evolved by the 90's into one of the top five global
exporters of rice. The trend continues, as produce advances from
low-value rice to coffee and aquaculture. Less competitive
countries are left fumbling with trade barriers and subsidies as
the only means to maintain market share against the Vietnamese
small farmer.
With WTO these trade barriers will be much more difficult to
unilaterally erect, furthermore it opens Vietnam for the next stage
of development: manufacturing. So far the country remains at the
lowest rung of textile production, but with a coastal population,
continuing wage pressure in China, political stability, and an
eager workforce the nation looks primed for growth. Intel, Canon,
Foxconn, Olympus, Brother, and all the major electronics
manufacturing are investing on a grand scale. Vietnam is gearing-up
to be an export powerhouse and the process is just starting.